February 21, 2025
INTRODUCTION
Half a century after the war and following three decades of integration, Vietnam has seen economic growth but our overall development remains behind the advanced countries in the region. Without sustainable and comprehensive development, Vietnam is at risk of falling further behind.
While much of the world is entering the 4th Industrial Revolution with a focus on advanced technologies, Vietnam is still reliant on low-skilled exports. The communist government of Vietnam has launched many reform measures including anti-corruption, anti-waste, streamlining the bureaucracy, and digital transformation; yet these measures have not addressed the roots of backwardness after half a century under the sole rule of the Communist Party of Vietnam.
In 1975 and during the midst of war, the southern half of the country was in a desirable development position with respect to many countries in the region. But 50 years later, in 2025, Vietnamese people have flocked to Singapore, Taiwan and Korea for jobs and risked their lives to find a new life in many Western countries. Vietnamese people still cannot achieve the most basic needs of society such as safe food, clean water, adequate healthcare, and primary education. Many aspects of Vietnamese society have been seriously degraded down to the moral foundation, even compared to 1975.
What are the lessons of the past? What are the root causes that pushed our country into the current situation? And most importantly, what is the path for the Vietnamese people into the future?
- HALF A CENTURY OF MISSED OPPORTUNITIES
First opportunity: The end of the war in 1975
The winning side of a civil war has a golden opportunity to pursue national reconciliation and move the country onward. However, the leaders of the Communist Party of Vietnam carried out a policy of revenge and have maintained the animosity to this day. Even worse, instead of leveraging the economic infrastructure and social achievements built in South Vietnam to take the whole country forward, the leadership in Hanoi destroyed these strengths so that the whole country became equally poor.
The ambition to establish an Indochina federation and the occupation of Cambodia for a decade (1979 – 1989) totally exhausted Vietnam. This is the situation that later generations refer to as the “subsidy period” to describe the scale of state policy failure and the deprivation among the people.
During this period, there were the rare dissenting voices of Tran Xuan Bach, Nguyen Ho, Tran Do and Vo Van Kiet from within the governing apparatus, pointing out wrong policies.
Second opportunity: The collapse of the Communist bloc in Eastern Europe in 1989 and the Soviet Union in 1991
When real socialism was officially abandoned right in its birthplace, Vietnam had a golden opportunity to break free from the shackles of a flawed and inhumane ideology and to boldly chart a new path as many countries in Eastern Europe did.
But it is extremely unfortunate that the Vietnamese Communist leadership fell into a state of panic. They urgently sought dependence on China to replace the support that they had lost from the Soviet Union, even at the price of sacrificing part of the country’s sovereignty. The 1990 Chengdu secret summit was not only a historical stain but also marked the “New Northern Colonial Period” of the Vietnamese people, as then Foreign Minister Nguyen Co Thach warned and Deputy Foreign Minister Tran Quang Co detailed in his memoirs of the time.
Third opportunity: Vietnam’s accession to the WTO and infusion of foreign investment in 2007
On the wave of globalization, many international bodies and companies poured money into Vietnam. This was a golden opportunity to not only develop the country, but also break the dependence on China.
In addition to substantial Foreign Direct Investment (FDI), Vietnam received billions of Official Development Assistance (ODA) — sums that other developing countries could only hope for. However, much of this money was seen as something that could be siphoned and shared among the interest groups surrounding then Prime Minister Nguyen Tan Dung. This was a period when Vietnam was underdeveloped but produced the most billionaires in the country’s history.
Many state-owned enterprises, the so-called “iron fists,” went bankrupt one after another, wasting away, leaving mountains of debt for future generations. The debt service alone became a drag on the country’s ability to thrive in the years ahead.
Another extremely harmful consequence is that after sidelining Nguyen Tan Dung’s faction in 2016, General Secretary Nguyen Phu Trong pulled the country closer into Beijing’s arms. In the following years, Nguyen Phu Trong brutally suppressed all forms of protest against Chinese encroachment. Even patriotic voices in the ruling apparatus like General Truong Giang Long were punished and silenced.
Clearly, Vietnam has had key opportunities and abundant means to recover from war and develop the country, but all of them were missed. South Korea and Taiwan once wished to be equal to South Vietnam, but now the GDP per capita of these two countries has surpassed Vietnam 10 times.
What causes the country to underperform its potential and not take off?
- THE ROOT CAUSES OF BACKWARDNESS
Vietnam’s backwardness comes from many internal and external factors, but at the core are three harmful mindsets of the Communist Party of Vietnam that have persisted for half a century.
First cause: Authoritarian and outdated Marxist-Leninist mindset
The Party claims to be the sole authority, directing and operating every sphere of the country, including the thinking and behavior of the people. This not only drags down the economy and the development of the people, but also fosters corruption and squanders the country’s resources.
Every institution becomes the Party’s tool to protect the Party and support the political system, suppressing voices for human rights and justice. The collusion between the corrupt power elite and the red capitalists leads to interest groups that are financially destabilizing the country.
Second cause: Repressive and divisive mindset
Not only does the regime oppress and terrorize the people, it also spreads suspicion in schools and workplaces, creating division between social groups so that no one trusts anyone else. The result is a passive, fearful, and uncreative society; indifferent or dependent, not daring to discuss the country’s affairs, leaving everything to the regime to do as it pleases.
Religion is restrained under an “ask-give” system where prior approval is required for many activities. Traditional Vietnamese values must give way to honoring a communist “revolutionary morality.” The consequence is a huge moral vacuum in society, leading to wide ranging repercussions from fake academic degrees to food processed with toxic chemicals to the alarming number of abortions.
Third cause: Dependence on a Big Brother, especially China, mindset
This dependence has caused Vietnam to lose its agency and autonomy, and to be constantly wary of Beijing’s reactions to geopolitical changes in the Indo-Pacific region. Due to its dependence on China, the regime has diminished the ability and responsibility of the Vietnamese military to protect the country’s sovereignty. Many mid- and high-level Vietnamese officers have been sent to China to study military and political ideology from the viewpoint of submissiveness to Beijing.
And most importantly, the regime has made the economy too dependent on China. It has been unwilling to control the border and prevent the flow of toxic chemicals from China into Vietnam that contaminate the country’s food supply and endanger public health; and unwilling to stop Chinese traders from manipulating Vietnamese agriculture, creating situations of artificial scarcity or surplus.
So, how can the Vietnamese people progress toward a better future?
- FREEDOM AND DEMOCRACY ARE THE PATH FORWARD
In each era, Vietnam has faced unique problems and needed the combined strength of the entire people to tackle the biggest national challenges.
Today, after half a century under the rule of the Communist Party of Vietnam and the resulting backwardness, it is clear that the challenge of reforming and modernizing Vietnam cannot be achieved by following a failed ideology.
To solve the country’s great problem, any government would need the contribution of the entire people. But in order for people to participate, national leaders, particularly the Communist Party of Vietnam, must discard the outdated thinking that has hindered the country’s development over the past 50 years.
The country must enter a new era! The foundation of this era is to build a free and democratic state that respects human rights and individual dignity, accepts pluralism, and respects all ethnic groups. And more importantly, that future needs to be guided by a new mindset — based on national and democratic values.
For this new era to begin: All Prisoners of Conscience who have been detained for defending human rights and protecting the country’s sovereignty must be freed.
At the same time, the following five policies need to be implemented immediately to lay a long-term foundation for developing and building a country worth living in and capable of contributing to the world.
First, reform the education system and invest in people
Specifically, schools should not be turned into tools for indoctrination in Marxism-Leninism so young people can become socialist men and women. The state should not interfere too deeply into school and social activities. Fifty years is enough to demonstrate the harmful consequences. Education reform needs to be based on three foundations:
HUMANISM, taking people as the basis and serving human advancement as the priority, so that everyone has the right to enjoy equal opportunities and livelihood. EXPLORATION, daring to accept change, knowing how to replace the old, outdated ways with best practices, suitable to the country’s circumstances and knowledge base. DEMOCRACY, knowing how to accept and respect differences to not undermine each other but to live, work, and cooperate together, sharing the weight of social responsibility and enjoying social benefits.
Simultaneously, all ethnic groups can only live and cooperate with each other when they have mutual understanding and engage in dialogue as equals. The immediate release of individuals of all ethnicities who have been detained for courageously resisting land grabs and religious persecution is a prerequisite for inter-ethnic cooperation towards the shared advancement of a country that puts people first.
Once the dignity of Vietnamese people is respected and promoted in their own country, then they no longer have to go abroad to be treated as menial labor and to work in underground industries, all in the name of labor export.
Second, promote civil society to encourage civic engagement
Civil society consists of organizations that are formed voluntarily, spontaneously, and independent of government control. Non-governmental organizations play two important roles in society: fostering the talent of the people and creating the foundation for justice and equality for all.
When civil society organizations develop strongly, the government can worry less about social control and focus more on national development goals and creating advancement opportunities for all people. In democratic countries, civil society is encouraged to grow independently, with people taking care of themselves, helping each other, and solving many social problems for themselves.
The independence of civil society also helps ensure that people’s rights are not violated or abused by the regime. In addition, independent groups help monitor government activities, reducing the risk of corruption and waste.
Third, build a market and knowledge economy to create breakthroughs for development
In August 2024, the United States Department of Commerce concluded that Vietnam was a non-market economy, because the government maintained too large a role in the economy and favored state-owned enterprises with cheap credit and a monopoly position in key industries including energy, telecommunications and transportation. A non-market economy limits competition, hinders private sector development, and makes the economic environment inefficient.
To realize the 4th Industrial Revolution, Vietnam must undertake extensive reforms to become a market economy. To generate growth breakthroughs, the country must provide the environment that fosters knowledge-based industries such as advanced computing and AI. Alongside private sector development, the right of workers to organize and advocate for their rights is essential.
To create a breakthrough, the education system needs to be decentralized so that thought leaders, business people and educators can contribute their talents; the experts themselves will innovate and influence different kinds of educational programs to meet the advancement of society and the country. And to attract investment in advanced industries, Vietnam must have internet freedom and academic freedom — allowing universities to operate autonomously to educate and train the engineers and specialists that the current system cannot adequately produce or have suffered a brain drain.
Fourth, urgently protect the environment and deal with drought and salinity in the Mekong Delta
Vietnam is among the countries most affected by climate change. Extreme weather events are expected to increase the frequency and severity of natural disasters, especially storms and floods, with increasingly severe impact on the entire territory of Vietnam. Typhoon Yagi, which made landfall and caused heavy damage to the northern provinces of Vietnam in September 2024, was an urgent warning.
More worrisome, climate change, along with the policies of the regime and of neighboring countries, has caused serious drought and saltwater intrusion in the Mekong Delta, where much of the country’s rice, seafood and fruits are produced. If remedial measures are not quickly taken, millions of people in the seven provinces of Long An, Ben Tre, Kien Giang, Tra Vinh, Soc Trang, Bac Lieu and Ca Mau could run out of drinking water and water sources for agriculture.
These efforts cannot be implemented solely through administrative measures from the government, but must mobilize the participation of the entire population and the support of the international community, so that first, there will no longer be instances of mountain sides destroyed and the sea filled for private property; second, people can feel secure to pursue their livelihood instead of constantly fighting salinity, drought, and landslides; and finally, people will no longer have to flee in the middle of the night because hydroelectric power plants caused flooding.
Fifth, rely on the people and break free from the influences of Beijing
The basic condition for Vietnam to take off is to escape Beijing’s constraints and negative influences. Particularly in the current favorable situation, the world is eagerly assessing Hanoi’s attitude on distancing from China. This is also an opportunity for the Vietnamese people to integrate into the developed world and, in turn, have a positive impact on their own country.
The Vietnamese will not truly unite or align with the state when patriotic voices are still suppressed, arrested and imprisoned. The immediate release of those who participated in anti-China protests is a sign of good will and respect for the patriotism of the entire people. The Vietnamese people have enough wisdom and patriotism to not promote war and to resolutely join forces with the free world to protect the sovereignty, land, waters, freedom and independence of Vietnam and other countries in Southeast Asia.
Imagine a Vietnam that does not continue to be corrupted and damaged by the Chinese model; a Vietnam that is one of the most advanced in the world where people live harmoniously and kindly with each other, looking at each other on the street with a friendly smile and are willing to help and support each other; and, a Vietnam where differences are respected and harmonized with each other like many colorful flowers, beautifying and enriching Vietnamese society and the nation.
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Viet Tan, from the founding days, has actively contributed to building a democratic foundation through our activities, community building and international advocacy.
Viet Tan is ready to cooperate with all individuals, organizations, and parties who share concern for the threats Vietnam faces and who desire to find a way out. Together, we can create historic changes and chart a new era for the Vietnamese people.
By addressing the root causes and undertaking fundamental changes, Vietnam can overcome any challenge and enter a new era of national progress.
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